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Scotiabank on LatAm CB Decisions This Week

LATAM
  • Colombia: Scotiabank note the vote balance surprised them since the “5 vs. 2” is a dovish guidance. Their take is that the central bank will continue the easing cycle in forthcoming meetings. However, the pace will strongly depend on the inflation deceleration.
    • That said, Scotiabank think the easing cycle could accelerate during H1-2024 since, during this period, they expect inflation to deliver the most significant reduction amid statistical base effects in indexed items. Current surveys point to a policy rate around 8.25%–9.0% by the end of 2024; Scotiabank Colpatria Economics project the policy rate to end 2024 at 7%.
  • Chile: Continuing with 75bp cuts until the end of Q1 of 2024 would eventually leave the real benchmark rate at a level similar to the current one. In this scenario, monetary policy would not be withdrawing the restriction, but rather maintaining it, which is misaligned with the weakness of domestic demand, the reduction of political uncertainty, the rapid inflationary convergence and the new external interest rate scenario.
    • Scotiabank do not rule out an increase in the size of the rate cuts if their early warning of negative inflation in December is confirmed, followed by muted inflationary prints in January and February. This would be conditional on CLP maintaining or adding to its recent strength as the BCCh has linked monetary policy to the evolution of the exchange rate.
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