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Scotiabank's Key Takeaways Following Election

CHILE
  • The right-wing candidates mobilized a significant number of voters (40.7% of the ballots), showing that Chilean voters continue to seek political balance despite recent electoral defeats. The sum of votes for José Antonio Kast and Sebastián Sichel (centre-right) will make a competitive December 19 runoff. On the other hand, Mr. Boric received less support than expected.
  • Most likely both candidates will need to moderate their programs to capture centre-left votes, mainly Mr. Boric in light of Conservative Kast's advantage.
  • Mr. Franco Parisi obtained around 12.8% of the votes (third largest share) and will be the great loot to capture. Is expected that centre-left Ms. Yasna Provoste (11.6% of the votes) will support Mr. Boric, while Mr. Sichel (12.8% of the votes) would negotiate with Mr. Kast.
  • Turnout was 47%, around 7.1 million people, below the last 2020 referendum (51%) and slightly above the elections of last May (45%). A higher turnout for the runoff is expected.
  • Right-wing coalitions increased their share in both houses in Congress, which will have implications for the constituent process. The election of six new representatives from the Partido de la Gente (Parisi's party) in the lower house brings in a new dynamic as they will be the key to reach majorities—a swing fraction.
  • The vote share, potential for program moderation and the congressional rebalancing are enough ingredients to see material positive impacts on the Chilean peso (CLP) and the stock market.
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