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Scotiabank Say Falling Inflation Expectations Give Room For Continued Easing

PERU
  • Scotiabank expect BCRP to cut by another 25bp this week. The cumulative 100bp of cuts since September is only a partial reversal of the 750bp of hikes that were delivered starting in August 2021 through to early 2023.
  • The magnitude of BCRP’s tightening campaign and the unique challenges that have affected Peru are among the reasons why cuts by LatAm central banks shouldn’t be viewed as necessarily indicative of what major global central banks may have in store for markets this year.
  • With this in mind, what BCRP has an eye on is the speed by which inflation expectations are coming down. One-year ahead inflation expectations surveyed by the central bank act as a modest leading indicator of inflation and give the central bank some comfort to continue its easing campaign.
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