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Scotiabank Says BCRP Monetary Pause To Continue For Long Time

PERU
  • Looking ahead, Scotiabank expect inflation to continue to decline in May, mainly due to a high base of comparison (inflation for May 2022 was unusually high: 0.38% m/m, well above the 0.14% m/m average for the last 20 years for the same month), so they expect it to gradually move down from 8%.
  • Scotiabank keep their inflation forecast of 5.0% for year-end 2023. Inflation data for April and their forecast for May confirm the possibility that the BCRP will continue with its monetary pause for a long time.
  • Their baseline scenario considers that the current rate of 7.75% is the terminal level and that it will remain at that level during Q2-2023 and Q3-2023.

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