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Scotiabank See Nov. Inflation Data Confirming 100BP Hike In December

COLOMBIA
  • Scotiabank expect a monthly increase of 0.67% reflecting their upside bias with respect to BanRep’s latest survey (0.54% median). Price changes across the usual suspects are behind their forecast: food given weather impacting some crops, in contrast to some stabilization in input costs and a moderation in international commodity prices.
  • According to their calculations, y/y inflation won’t show a peak yet which, combined with the fact that the performance of the economy in Q3 was stronger than expected, leads Scotiabank to anticipate an increase of 100bps taking the policy rate to 12% and do not rule out an additional 50bps hike in January.
  • During the first quarter of 2023 is when we may see greater price pressures due to the indexation effects though these will, in turn, contribute to a slowing economy that could also allow for a faster adjustment in external accounts.
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