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Seasonal Adjustments Show Clear Deceleration Trend (1/2)

SWEDEN
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  • The chart below shows that while the development of CPIF ex-energy inflation on a monthly basis (when seasonally adjusted and annualised) is volatile, the trend 3-,6- and 12-month horizons is clearly decelerating.
  • Using the X-13 seasonal adjustment method, MNI's calculations indicate SA M/M CPIF ex-energy was +0.22% in January (vs 0.36% in December). On a 3m/3m seasonally adjusted and annualised basis, inflation momentum decelerated to 1.73% (vs 1.89% prior).
  • Therefore, the downward trend in Swedish seasonally adjusted inflation momentum continued in January, meaning the basis for the Riksbank's pivot in guidance at the February decision remains firmly intact.

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  • The chart below shows that while the development of CPIF ex-energy inflation on a monthly basis (when seasonally adjusted and annualised) is volatile, the trend 3-,6- and 12-month horizons is clearly decelerating.
  • Using the X-13 seasonal adjustment method, MNI's calculations indicate SA M/M CPIF ex-energy was +0.22% in January (vs 0.36% in December). On a 3m/3m seasonally adjusted and annualised basis, inflation momentum decelerated to 1.73% (vs 1.89% prior).
  • Therefore, the downward trend in Swedish seasonally adjusted inflation momentum continued in January, meaning the basis for the Riksbank's pivot in guidance at the February decision remains firmly intact.