SEB: SEK Seasonality Implies Weakness Until Early-December

SEB note that EUR/SEK has "moved higher in recent weeks and is once again trading clearly above SEK10.00. Heading into December we expect this trend will continue. We don't expect any support from this week's Riksbank decision, a view that is also shared in our investor survey, where the Riksbank is seen as a neutral factor for the SEK in the coming 3-6 months. At the same time, the Fed's policy and global risk appetite is expected to have a negative impact on SEK. This is a view we share, while the "PPM-flow" in the beginning of December suggests a further rise in EUR/SEK. However, from mid-December, the seasonal effect turns and indicates a lower EUR/SEK towards the end of the year."