MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, December 9

MNI BRIEF: China To Strengthen Policy Easing In 2025: Poliburo

MNI BRIEF: Japan Nov Sentiment, Outlook Indexes Rise

MNI BRIEF: China Nov CPI Slows To 5-Month Low Of 0.2% Y/Y

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1870 Mon; -1.39% Y/Y

MNI: China CFETS Yuan Index Down 0.36% In Week of Dec 6

MNI JAPAN Q3 GDP REV +0.3% Q/Q; PRELIM +0.2%; MEDIAN +0.2%

MNI: UNIV OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT PRELIMINARY DEC INDEX 74.0

CANADA NOV IVEY PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX 52.3 SA

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Secondary Post-FOMC Minutes React: Off Lows, Rate Cut Odds Cool

US TSY FUTURES
  • Still weaker, Treasury futures are paring losses as market continues to digest the January FOMC minutes. Focus on policy maker concern of cutting rates too soon vs. waiting too long.
  • Mar'24 10Y futures currently -8.5 at 109-21.5, vs 109-18 low; initial technical support of 109-17/16+ (50.0% of Oct 19 - Dec 27 climb / Low Feb 14) earlier to 109-15 low. Resistance above at 110-17.5 (Feb 15 high).
  • Curves hold flatter: 2s10s -0.377 at -34.277, 10Y yield +0.0394 at 4.3147%.
  • Projected rate cut pricing are consolidating from this morning's levels: March 2024 chance of 25bp rate cut currently -6.8% vs. -9.6% earlier w/ cumulative of -1.7bp at 5.312%; May 2024 at -26.6% vs. -30.0% w/ cumulative -8.3bp at 5.245%; June 2024 -60.5% vs. -64.9% w/ cumulative cut -23.5bp at 5.094%. Fed terminal at 5.33% in Feb'24
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