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SECURITY: Israeli Response To Iran Likely To Focus On Military Targets

SECURITY
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Lazar Berman at the Times of Israel reports on X that Israel’s response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack, "will likely focus on military targets, but that could still change," according to an Israeli source who said the US, "wants to make sure the response doesn't lead to more escalation.”

  • While Israel hitting Iran's nuclear facilities now appears remote, an attack on Iran's energy infrastructure cannot be ruled out, despite argumentsthat such an attack would have limited strategic upside for Israel. There are also questions about the level of influence the Biden administration has over Israel's military strategy, in light of failed attempts to dissuade Israel from an invasion of Rafah and Netanyahu's decision to intensify a Lebanon bombing campaign during efforts to secure a ceasefire.
  • Henning Gloystein, at the Eurasia Group, said the most likely outcome – which Eurasia Group estimates at a 50 per cent likelihood – is a relatively contained security crisis in which Israel strikes the infrastructure used for Iran’s domestic energy supply, not its exports, per the New Statesman. 
  • Such a strike on Iran's domestic supply would abstain from hitting the oil export terminal on Kharg Island, potentially avoiding disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz but risking further escalation.
  • Dror Doron, an expert on Hezbollah, noted on X: "Israel is now pushing the US to promote the election of a new president in Lebanon. The position has been vacant for the past 2 years, as Hezbollah refused any [nominee] it can't control." 
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Lazar Berman at the Times of Israel reports on X that Israel’s response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack, "will likely focus on military targets, but that could still change," according to an Israeli source who said the US, "wants to make sure the response doesn't lead to more escalation.”

  • While Israel hitting Iran's nuclear facilities now appears remote, an attack on Iran's energy infrastructure cannot be ruled out, despite argumentsthat such an attack would have limited strategic upside for Israel. There are also questions about the level of influence the Biden administration has over Israel's military strategy, in light of failed attempts to dissuade Israel from an invasion of Rafah and Netanyahu's decision to intensify a Lebanon bombing campaign during efforts to secure a ceasefire.
  • Henning Gloystein, at the Eurasia Group, said the most likely outcome – which Eurasia Group estimates at a 50 per cent likelihood – is a relatively contained security crisis in which Israel strikes the infrastructure used for Iran’s domestic energy supply, not its exports, per the New Statesman. 
  • Such a strike on Iran's domestic supply would abstain from hitting the oil export terminal on Kharg Island, potentially avoiding disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz but risking further escalation.
  • Dror Doron, an expert on Hezbollah, noted on X: "Israel is now pushing the US to promote the election of a new president in Lebanon. The position has been vacant for the past 2 years, as Hezbollah refused any [nominee] it can't control."