Sefcovic To Brief EU Ambsdr's As Hardline Option Against UK Gains Ground

This afternoon, European Commission Vice President Maros Sefcovic is set to brief EU ambassadors on the situation regarding the Northern Ireland protocol. The briefing comes around a month after the EU published its response to the UK's summer command paper regarding the protocol. Sefcovic is set to hold talks with the UK gov'ts point-man on EU-UK relations, Cabinet Office minister Lord Frost, on Friday.

• Politico reports this morning that there is a growing expectation among EU member states that the UK will trigger Article 16 of the protocol, which will see the protocol disapplied. This in turn will see checks on goods trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland removed, risking the integrity of the EU Single Market.
• Some in the EU seek a 'wait and see' approach according to the report, arguing that until the UK acts the EU should not provoke London. However, a growing band of countries led by France and potentially including Germany are calling for broad tariffs to be re-imposed across the board if the UK disapplied the protocol.
• This action could lead to a broader trade war between the UK and the EU. This scenario would prove harmful for the UK and Irish economies, and would have knock-on effects for those nations engaged heavily in trade with the UK such as the Netherlands.
• Given the strong reliance of the UK economy on services, if the EU really wanted to punish the Johnson gov't it would seek to hinder the ability of UK services to be delivered in the EU. This is opposed to tariffs on the trade in goods, which while disruptive and likely to garner headlines, would not inflict the same level of economic pain on the UK.