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SEK: EURSEK Off Highs; Summer Liquidity May Exacerbate Intraday Moves

SEK

EURSEK was unable to register a clear breach of resistance at 11.4571 (50% retracement of the April 30 to June 12 price selloff), and has since moved off highs to trade 0.3% lower today. There was no obvious catalyst for the sharp sell-off yesterday afternoon, and EURSEK remains 0.5% above Friday’s close.

  • We note that lower-than-usual liquidity is likely to be prevalent in Scandi crosses through the next month, as participants (including the Riksbank) take summer breaks. The low liquidity may exacerbate intraday moves and leave the SEK more exposed to external risk sentiment than usual.
  • There are currently no scheduled Riksbank speaker appearances before the August 20 monetary policy decision (where a 25bp cut is expected).
  • Thursday’s US CPI report may provide the next flashpoint of activity, ahead of Friday’s domestic inflation reading.
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