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SEK Spirals as Markets Price Out Odds of Imminent Riksbank Action

FOREX
  • The greenback is directionless early Friday, contrasting with the general theme of the week where the dollar has drifted lower across early European hours. The notable volatility following Wednesday's CPI may have flushed positioning somewhat, with markets now looking ahead to the UMich release as well as Fedspeak, with Barkin appearing on CNBC following the Wall Street opening bell.
  • GBP is another source of weakness, with EUR/GBP inching to a new August high this morning following signs of a further deterioration for the economy in this morning's GDP report. Both private consumption and government spending came in below forecast, putting EUR/GBP above the 100-dma at 0.8472.
  • SEK is underperforming, slipping against all others in G10 after the softer-than-expected inflation release this morning. CPI slowed to 0.1% on the month (vs. Exp. 0.3%) and 8.5% on the year (vs. Exp. 8.7%). The softer report has prompted markets to price out the outside chance of an inter-meeting rate hike from the Riksbank (something that many on the sell-side had seen a material risk of).
  • NOK/SEK has rallied to the best levels since late April in response, topping 1.06 as well as the 50% retracement of the Mar - May downleg at 1.0621.
  • US import and export price index data crosses later today, with the prelim University of Michigan survey for August also on the docket. Focus will turn to the inflation expectations answers, which are expecting to slow to 5.1% and 2.8% for the 1-yr and 5-10yr forecast horizons respectively.
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