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SEK: Stronger vs G10 Despite Dovish Riksbank As Bearish Technicals Dominate

SEK

The Riksbank decision and accompanying guidance was in line with expectations, which has left SEK crosses vulnerable to bearish technical conditions today.

  • Although the Riksbank opened the door to three additional rate cuts in 2024 (i.e. a 25bp cut at each of its remaining meetings), the SEK sits stronger versus most G10 currencies at typing.
  • Coming into the decision, markets were already pricing 100bps of cuts through year-end.
  • In NOKSEK (0.3% lower), support at 0.9737 has held as oil prices recover from intraday lows, though bulls will need to push through the 50-day EMA at 0.9815 to ease the bearish technical backdrop.
  • EURSEK is 0.4% lower, trading around the 61.8% retracement of the June 12 – July 25 bull run at 11.3859. A cross of the 20- and 50-day EMAs in the coming sessions would strengthen a bearish theme.
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