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Sell-Off: TYH Just Above Key Support; Yield Curves New Highs

US TSYS
Bonds under heavy pressure, yield curves making new highs (5s30s at 155.12 -- last seen July 2015); 10YY 1.2669%H, 30YY comfortably above 2.0% taps 2.0781%H.
  • Several factors spurring current weakness in rates, including rebound in US$ (US$/Yen 105.78 is just through key Feb 5 resistance of 105.77), note CME vol index VIX taps 21.75 (+1.78).
  • On FI technicals, TYH futures at 136-04 -- are just above key support and the bear trigger of 136-01, Jan 12 low. A break would reinforce the bearish theme open 135-25+, 76.4% of the rally between Mar - Aug 2020.
  • Several analyst/market pundit opinions of higher stocks outweighing sell-off as "reflation" talk gets louder, Fed Bullard on CNBC US "in good shape with inflation right now".
  • Heavy volumes with tight stops on way down in intermediates to long end, March/June rolls adding only slightly but expect surge in roll volume ahead Feb 26 first notice.
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