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POLAND: Sell-Side Analysts See Core CPI Around 4.0% Y/Y in December

POLAND
PolandCEEMEAEM BulletBulletEmerging Market News

Following this morning’s final inflation print for December, sell-side analysts anticipate that core inflation declined to around 4.0% Y/Y from 4.3% in November. Note that the official core inflation print will be released by the NBP tomorrow at 13:00GMT/14:00CET. Analyst views below:

  • Goldman Sachs note that the composition of the final Dec CPI release was relatively dovish. Looking ahead, GS are more optimistic relative to the NBP regarding the inflation outlook for 2025. This is because the NBP’s most recent forecast assumes a complete expiry of the household energy price caps in January which is an outdated assumption and because GS maintain their conviction that disinflationary external factors will weigh on inflation in H2-25. On GS’ estimates, core inflation fell 0.3pp in December to 4.0% y/y.
  • ING say despite the projected increase in headline inflation in 1Q-25, the overall outlook is improving and an expected moderation of price growth in 2H-25 offers some room for rate cuts. Based on today’s CPI composition, ING estimate that core inflation excluding food and energy prices declined to 3.9-4.0% y/y.
  • JP Morgan note that although headline was revised lower, none of that appears to be driven by food and energy items, as the final release confirms the values in the flash release. Mechanically extracting the non-core contributions, JPM say they are left with core CPI around 0%, which in over-year-ago terms could bring CPI down to 4.0% y/y. 
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Following this morning’s final inflation print for December, sell-side analysts anticipate that core inflation declined to around 4.0% Y/Y from 4.3% in November. Note that the official core inflation print will be released by the NBP tomorrow at 13:00GMT/14:00CET. Analyst views below:

  • Goldman Sachs note that the composition of the final Dec CPI release was relatively dovish. Looking ahead, GS are more optimistic relative to the NBP regarding the inflation outlook for 2025. This is because the NBP’s most recent forecast assumes a complete expiry of the household energy price caps in January which is an outdated assumption and because GS maintain their conviction that disinflationary external factors will weigh on inflation in H2-25. On GS’ estimates, core inflation fell 0.3pp in December to 4.0% y/y.
  • ING say despite the projected increase in headline inflation in 1Q-25, the overall outlook is improving and an expected moderation of price growth in 2H-25 offers some room for rate cuts. Based on today’s CPI composition, ING estimate that core inflation excluding food and energy prices declined to 3.9-4.0% y/y.
  • JP Morgan note that although headline was revised lower, none of that appears to be driven by food and energy items, as the final release confirms the values in the flash release. Mechanically extracting the non-core contributions, JPM say they are left with core CPI around 0%, which in over-year-ago terms could bring CPI down to 4.0% y/y.