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Sell-side CPIF reactions

SWEDEN
  • Nordea: "CPIF ex energy rose to 6.6% y/y in July, up from 6.1% in June. This was just above our call (6.5%) but much higher than the Riksbank’s view (5.8%)... food prices continued to rise swiftly and came out much higher than expected, rising by a full 3.2% m/m and 13.5% y/y – the highest year-on-year reading since the mid 1980’s... Prices for other goods as well as services rose to, but somewhat less than we had expected and the only positive news in today's figures."
  • "All in all, July inflation was not too far from our forecast. This means that prices are hiked swiftly on a monthly basis and that core inflation is well above the Riksbank’s forecast. We expect the Riksbank to hike rates by 75bp in September and by 50bp in November."
  • Swedbank: "Inflation fell back in July as lower energy prices dragged annual CPIF down to 7.98%, lower than we and the market had expected. Most likely, this is a temporary decline as energy prices have risen of late. Core inflation, on the other hand, continued its ascent with an annual rate of 6.57%. CPIF excl. energy now prints 0.78 pp above the Riksbank’s forecast from late June. Looking under the hood, food prices once again rose above expectations with dairy, vegetables and fish among the main drivers."
  • "We stick to our call of a 75 bps rate hike in September. The likelihood of an in-between meetings hike is more or less gone, and we judge risks to our forecast as slightly tilted to a lower hike (50 bps) rather than a higher (100 bps)."
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