Sell-Side Desks React To NBP Rate Decision Ahead Of Governor's Presser

The following summarises sell-side views published in the interim between the NBP's stand-pat rate decision announced yesterday and Governor Adam Glapinski's press conference scheduled for 14:00BST/15:00CEST.

• Goldman Sachs believe that the recent relatively benign inflation print will be highlighted by NBP Governor Glapinski today and they think that he is likely to reiterate his relatively dovish policy guidance pointing to the rate-cutting cycle beginning in 4Q2023.
• ING see the presser as the key event in the context of the monetary policy outlook and expect its tone to be more dovish than a month ago on the back of a better short-term inflation outlook (with question marks re: medium-term outlook).
  
• mBank note that the MPC tipped hat to a decline in core inflation, both in Poland and some other economies, which is a "slightly dovish signal." They don't expect the press conference to bring any major changes to official rhetoric.
  
• Santander observe that the previous MPC meeting was also preceded by dovish comments from policymakers, which proved misleading, as the subsequent presser was relatively hawkish and emphasised data-dependence. They expect this scenario to be repeated today.
  
• BOS Bank expect Glapinski to reaffirm the MPC's "wait-and-see" stance and reiterate that he hopes that there will be room for cutting rates by end-2023 if inflation trends are favourable. He may also put more emphasis on the importance of July macroeconomic projection.
  
• PKO write that Glapinski will likely reiterate that the rate-hike cycle remains "paused" but his messaging may turn slightly more dovish. This could apply some pressure to the zloty, especially if Glapinski flags the potential for rate cuts this autumn.
  
• Millennium Bank expect the rhetoric at today's press conference to be fairly dovish, close to what we know from previous pressers, while the Governor will likely point to the downside surprise in the latest inflation reading and a stronger PLN exchange rate.