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Sell-Side Peak Rate Expectations Range From 3.75% To 5.00%

FED
MNI's Fed preview will be published later today. Having gone through about 30 sell-side previews, the state of play so far:
  • A 75bp hike is almost unanimously expected this week (Nomura sees 100bp).
  • Most expect a 50bp hike in November, though some see a 75bp raise, and one or two 25bp.
  • The expected peak/ terminal rate varies from 3.50-3.75% (BNP Paribas) to 4.75-5.00% (ANZ, Deutsche, Natwest, Rabobank), with the most common expectation 4.25% (i.e. another 100bp of total hikes after the September FOMC) but no particular consensus.
  • Several are already penciling in cuts to their rate paths.

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