MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, July 18

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Sell-side reactions to CPI

UK DATA
  • JP Morgan: "The upside inflation surprise will raise questions about whether the MPC will have to move more quickly, but we continue to think the MPC will not deliver more than 15bps in December; doing so would risk encouraging more aggressive pricing for next year which at the November meeting the BoE went out of its way to push back on. We think the next hike will come in May, but the pace of tightening next year will likely depend critically on how wage inflation responds to the tighter labor market."
  • Berenberg: "The upside surprise in the October inflation data supports our expectation that the BoE will hike the bank rate by 15bps to 0.25% at its next MPC meeting on 16 December."
  • Pantheon: "Looking ahead, we continue to expect the headline rate of CPI inflation to rise to about 4.6% in November and then to peak at around 5.0% in April... we continue to think that CPI inflation will fall to about 2.5% in Q4 2022 and ultimately will undershoot the 2% target in 2023, enabling the MPC to raise Bank Rate only slowly over the next year."

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