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Sell-side reactions to labour market data

UK DATA
  • JP Morgan: "The labor market is tightening more rapidly than the BoE had projected just a couple of weeks ago, with the unemployment rate dropping to a 1974 low of 3.7% in 1Q and on track to fall to 3.5% in the next couple of months... While the BoE’s message was dovish at the last meeting, the data continue to speak louder than MPC rhetoric and we remain confident that rates will rise again by 25bps in June"
  • Goldman Sachs: "Today’s data is consistent with our view that the UK labour market will remain tight and wage growth elevated despite the expected GDP growth slowdown due to the war in Ukraine. Given the tight labour market and strong inflationary pressures, we continue to expect the BoE to hike in back-to-back meetings through August, taking Bank Rate to 1.5%. ."
  • TD Securities: "We estimate that regular pay growth will remain in the lower end of the 4-5% range this year, but with today's bonus pay distortions, it's possible that headline wage growth remains very strong, around 8% for the rest of this year unless recent underlying wage momentum starts to unwind or bonuses weaken sharply...
    Today's data should keep the MPC uncomfortable heading into tomorrow's inflation release, where we expect a slight upside surprise."
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