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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: Dec 2024
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Sell-Side Updates Post Yesterday's CPI, BSP Easing Not Until H2 2024
US banks don't see BSP easing until H2 2024, see below for more details.
J.P Morgan: "Revise lower CPI forecasts; BSP to stand pat in 1H24 and ease by 50bp in 2H24 – Following today’s weaker-than-expected print, we revise lower our headline CPI forecasts from 6.1% to 6.0% in 2023 and from 4.6% to 4.0% in 2024. However, due to base effects, seasonality factors, and potential upcoming price hikes (e.g., minimum wage, transport charge, electricity tariff), the disinflation trajectory next year could be choppy. Until a sustained downward trend in overall prices toward the 2-4% target range is achieved (earliest in 3Q24), the BSP will likely stand pat in 1H24 and only deliver 50bp of easing in 2H24, predicated on our in-house view of 100bp of Fed rate cuts in the same time frame. "
Goldman Sachs: "Today's reading was close to the lower band of BSP's monthly inflation forecast range of 4.0% to 4.8%. Going forward, we expect BSP to keep its policy rate unchanged at 6.50% until Q3 2024 as inflation eases."
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.