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Free AccessSell-side Views Ahead of September CPI
Norway September CPI is released tomorrow and is the only inflation print between the September and November Norges Bank meetings.
- Current consensus is for CPI to print at 4.0% Y/Y (Prev. 4.8%), 0.7% M/M and CPI-ATE at 6.1% Y/Y (Prev. 6.3%), 0.7% M/M.
- Norges Bank have signalled that they will hold rates steady on November 2, and will likely hike once more in December.
- The September MPR noted that the inflationary peak has likely passed, and forecasted September CPI at +4.2% Y/Y and CPI-ATE at +6.1% Y/Y.
- Unless tomorrow's print shows a large downside surprise, it is unlikely to push Norges Bank off their pre-signalled path. A large upside surprise would reinforce the case for a December hike, but would likely not prompt a November hike given there will have only been one CPI print between meetings.
- Below, we summarise a number of sell-side views ahead of tomorrow's print:
Bank of America: CPI 4.3% Y/Y, 0.9% M/M; CPI-ATE 6.0%, 0.7% M/M
Barclays: CPI-ATE 5.9% Y/Y, 0.6% M/M
Danske Bank: CPI-ATE 6.1% Y/Y
DNB: CPI 4.1% Y/Y; CPI-ATE 6.2% Y/Y
- They note that core inflation generally rises in September, due to the end of summer sales and introduction of new collections in clothing, furniture and decoration.
- The depreciation of NOK over the year may push the above components up by more than usual.
- Education prices usually only rise in September, and may be pushed up more than usual by wages, while food prices are not expected to fall as they normally would.
- The CPI print will be driven by the fall in spot electricity prices.
SEB: CPI 4.0% Y/Y; CPI ATE 6.2% Y/Y; CPI ATE ex-food, alcohol and tobacco 5.3% Y/Y
- Expect food prices to rise slightly, at odds with the usual seasonal pattern (+0.5% M/M NSA; +1.0% M/M SA).
- Headline will be dragged down by electricity prices, which are below the Government support level and fell sharply in September.
Handelsbanken: CPI-ATE 6.1% Y/Y
- Expect inflation to fall following another base effect. Handelsbanken's model "based on the various sub-components of the CPI-ATE has, on average, fallen below the CPI-ATE", indicating core price pressures.
- They note that the fall in energy prices "implies a softening of cost pressures and thus also selling prices".
- Still see a long way to go to get inflation to target, owing to contributions of wages and unit profit to inflation.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.