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Sell side views (hawkish to dovish): 3/4

BOE
DeutscheExpect 8-1 vote with Saunders dissenting. Continue to look for Aug 22 hike of 15bp (although only marginally in favour of Aug 22 over May 22).
Morgan StanleyExpect 8-1 vote with Saunders dissent. Feb22 "hawkish signal" for single 2022 hike of 15bp in August. If furlough unwinds as BOE forecast May22 and Nov22 hikes.
Société GénéraleSaunders to dissent to reduce QE target by GBP45bln and "minor chance" Pill may join him. First hike 15bp hike Q3-22.
NatWest Markets8-1 vote with a "modest risk" of Ramsden joining Saunders to dissent. First 15bp hike in Nov22 (risks of an earlier hike in Q3 or Q2). Further 25bp hikes in May23 and Nov23.
ING8-1 vote with Saunders the sole dissenter. First hike to be delivered in Nov22 with second hike in H2-23.

Source: Analyst previews and MNI

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