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Selling Pressure on CZK Eases Amid 'Hawkish' CNB

CZECHIA
  • Czech policymaker Banker Benda mentioned in an interview today that CNB may raise interest rates faster than the central bank's spring forecast. Benda may propose a 50bps hike at the next meeting on August 5.
  • Policymakers have been hinting markets of another two 25bps hike in H2 (including next meeting); however, CNB could become more hawkish if inflationary pressures remain elevated.
  • Finance Minister Alena Schillerova said in an interview that the state budget could return to surplus in 8 years.
  • This morning, economic data showed that July business and consumer confidence fell slightly to 11.8 and -5.3.
  • USDCZK has remains flat in the past week, oscillating around 21.80. Resistance to watch on the topside stands at 22; on the downside, first support stands at 21.67 (100DMA).
  • Czech 10y yield has been consolidating lower in the past week, breaking below its 50DMA at 1.69%; next support to watch on the downside stands at 1.60%. on the topside, first resistance to watch above 1.69% stands at 1.74%.
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