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Selling Pressure on TRY Remains High Ahead of the Meeting

TURKEY
  • Selling pressure on TRY remains elevated ahead of the June 23 meeting, with the CBRT still expected to keep 1W repo rate steady at 14%.
  • TRY is one of the weakest performing currencies among the EM world this month, with the lira down over 5% against the US Dollar.
  • We previously saw that the current geopolitical uncertainty combined with dovish CBRT stance and the deep negative real yields have been weighing on the lira in the past few months.
  • With an inflation rate of over 70% in May, Turkey currently offers a 10Y real yield of -54.5%.
  • GS recently estimated that inflation could peak at 80% in the near term before starting to ‘decelerate’.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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