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Sentiment on ZAR Remains Bearish

SOUTH AFRICA
  • We have seen that the renewed geopolitical tensions combined with the CNY depreciation have been weighing on EM FX since the start of the second quarter.
  • ‘Risk on’ ZAR, which was the second best performing FX in Q1 (+9.1% against the USD), is now the weakest performing currency among the EM world, down 9% against the greenback.
  • USDZAR broke back above the psychological level 16 last week to find resistance at 16.27 on Monday.
  • Next resistance to watch on the topside stands at 16.3820, which corresponds to the 50% retracement of the 13.4120 – 19.3510 range (2020/2021 low high).
    • The 16.3820 was rejected in the end of November 2021.

Source: Bloomberg

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