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Separate CDU/CSU Tickets Scenario Poll Shows Laschet's Uphill Struggle

GERMANY

A hypothetical scenario poll from INSA, in which the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU) run on separate tickets nationwide, shows the massive uphill struggle faced by CDU chair and CDU-CSU chancellor candidate Armin Laschet in winning power in the September federal election.

  • Germany, INSA poll: Scenario: CDU (EPP) and CSU (EPP) run nationwide: CSU-EPP: 24 (+18), GRÜNE-G/EFA: 22% (+13), SPD-S&D: 13% (-8), AfD-ID: 11% (-2), CDU-EPP: 10% (-17), FDP-RE: 10% (-1), Linke: 6% (-3). +/- vs. 2017 election. Fieldwork: 20 Apr. 21. Sample size: 1,000
  • In this poll Laschet would be running as CDU chancellor candidate, with Bavaria Minister-President Markus Soeder running as chancellor candidate for the CSU.
  • The fact that the CDU - ostensibly the larger national party - would fall to fifth place, 14 points behind a party that in its history has never contested an election outside of the southern state of Bavaria, shows just how unpopular Laschet is among the public - and indeed how well Soeder polls even with conservatives outside of his home state.
  • Conventional polling showing the CDU and CSU contesting the election together has shown a continued slump in support for the 'Union parties', while the urban, liberal, centrist Greens continue to make gains.
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