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- The September Riksbank meeting and accompanying Monetary Policy Report will be published at 8:30BST/9:30CET and will be watched for any clues of a hawkish pivot.
- The main metric to watch will be the Riksbank's repo rate path. In recent meetings (including the last meeting in July), the repo rate path has been left at zero throughout the policy horizon through to Q3-24. The September meeting will not extend the forecast profile and will continue to forecast through Q3-24 rather than adding an extra quarter.
- The most effective way for the Riksbank to convey a message that normality is returning would be to add some probability of a rate hike into the Q3-24 projection. This is seen as a risk, but not a base case, in almost every sell-side preview that we have read.
- A flat repo rate path would likely see EURSEK approach the 100-dma of 10.2023 (and probably spike a bit higher towards 10.25).
- A repo rate path with any probability of a hike in it would likely see the 200-dma breached at 10.1478 with the September 15 low of 10.1259 under pressure.
- For the full MNI Riksbank Preview, click here.