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September and October CPI Prints Key For Policy Outlook

POLAND
  • Poland insisted it won't stop extracting coal at the Turow lignite mine near the Czech border even after hearing it faces a daily 500,000 euro ($586,000) fine for ignoring a European Union court order to shut down operations (BBG).
  • Last week, NBP member Jerzy Kropiwnicki mentioned that a rate hike in coming months cannot be ruled out and that the central bank decision will depend on the November projection. The first hike is likely to be 'small' and the NBP would not have to stop QE first to embark in a tightening cycle.
  • At this stage, there are three policymakers (Hardt, Gatnar and Zubelewicz) voting for an 'imminent' rate hike as they mentioned several times that inflation is now demand-driven in Poland and a gradual tightening could ease the inflationary pressures.
  • Yesterday, PPI inflation rose more than expected to 9.5% YoY in August (vs. 9.3% expp.), up from revised 8.4% the previous month.
  • This morning (9am London time), retail sales is expect to increase to 10.5% YoY in August (up from 8.9% the previous month).

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