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September CPI Coming Up

SOUTH KOREA

The data focus today rests with the September CPI figures, due out in little under an hour. The market expects +0.4% m/m outcome versus -0.1% last month. The y/y pace is expected to be steady at 5.7%, likewise for core inflation, forecast at 4.4%. This comes ahead of next week's BoK meeting on Wednesday. We may need to see another decent downside surprise to shift the market away from expecting a 50bps hike next week.

  • Last month we saw the first decent downside surprise in headline inflation (in y/y) for quite some time, 5.7% y/y versus 6.1% forecast. This -0.4ppt outcomes was the largest downside surprise since October 2020.
  • The forecast range for today is 5.4% to 5.9%, for core it is 4.2% to 4.5% (although Bloomberg only recorded 3 estimates for this outcome).
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The data focus today rests with the September CPI figures, due out in little under an hour. The market expects +0.4% m/m outcome versus -0.1% last month. The y/y pace is expected to be steady at 5.7%, likewise for core inflation, forecast at 4.4%. This comes ahead of next week's BoK meeting on Wednesday. We may need to see another decent downside surprise to shift the market away from expecting a 50bps hike next week.

  • Last month we saw the first decent downside surprise in headline inflation (in y/y) for quite some time, 5.7% y/y versus 6.1% forecast. This -0.4ppt outcomes was the largest downside surprise since October 2020.
  • The forecast range for today is 5.4% to 5.9%, for core it is 4.2% to 4.5% (although Bloomberg only recorded 3 estimates for this outcome).