September CPI Preview

Tomorrow morning sees the release of Swedish September CPI.

• Consensus sees CPIF at 3.7% Y/Y (vs 4.7% prior) and 0.2% M/M (vs -0.1% prior). CPIF ex-energy is expected at 6.7% Y/Y (vs 7.2% prior) and 0.3% M/M (vs -0.3% prior).
• In the September monetary policy report, the Riksbank saw CPIF at 3.75% Y/Y and CPIF ex-energy at 6.57% Y/Y.
• The Riksbank are data dependent ahead of the 23 November rate decision (but have indicated a hawkish bias in recent communications) and will be most interested in the pace of services inflation (September services CPI was 7.0%).
• This month, the fall in headline is expected to be driven by electricity prices.
• Note that before the November decision, there will still be one more inflation print for October (released on 14 November). Unless the data tomorrow surprises significantly in either direction, it probably won't be enough to convince members of the Executive Board into taking more defined hike/hold stances.
• Please see this link for a summary of a number of sell-side previews we have seen.