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September CPI Sell-side Previews (1/2)


Local analysts generally see CPIF inflation at similar levels to the Riksbank, with the exception of Danske Bank who look for a softer figure. For CPIF ex-energy, analysts forecasts are a touch stronger than the Riksbank:

Riksbank: CPIF 3.75% Y/Y; CPIF ex-energy 6.57% Y/Y.

Danske Bank: CPIF 3.5% Y/Y; CPIF ex-energy 6.6% Y/Y

  • "There are significant uncertainty regarding two distinct areas: food prices and recreation/transportation services. Food is expected to see a marginal decline, while the other are likely to show a further downward price correctionfrom the extremely elevated price levels seen in July".
  • "Falling electricity prices will push the energy component lower as it outweighs the rise in petrol prices".
  • Additionally, Dankse expect "normal seasonal price changes" in most core components, while mortgage costs are expected to rise by the smallest amount since April 2022 (2.5% M/M).

DNB: CPIF 3.8% Y/Y; CPIF ex-energy 6.7% Y/Y

  • "We forecast that energy prices had a slightly negative impact in September, leading CPIF to rise 0.2% MOM in September, resulting CPIF to drop down to 3.8% YOY".

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