September CPI Sell-side Previews (2/2)

Handelsbanken: CPIF 3.7% Y/Y; CPIF ex-energy 6.8% Y/Y.

• "The Nordic electricity spot price tumbled in the second half of September, implying that the Riksbank did not have these data at hand when finalising its latest monetary policy report".
• "More disinflationary signals from the recent krona appreciation and the latest PPI have been partly offset by a halt in the previous easing of firms' pricing plans".

Nordea: CPIF 3.8% Y/Y; CPIF ex-energy 6.8%

• "Prices of fuel and heating rose in September on the month and were roughly unchanged over the year. The massive drop in electricity prices nevertheless means that energy prices reduce CPIF year-on-year by almost 2% points".
• Nordea expect that "indirect effects of lower electricity prices through production and transport costs will also dampen core inflation over time".
• The stabilisation of food prices in September 2023 vs September 2022 should help moderate core inflation, though Nordea note "Systembolaget, the state liquor store, raised prices in September".

SEB: CPIF 3.7% Y/Y; CPIF ex-energy 6.6%

• "Electricity prices declined markedly in September and are set to fall even further in October. Electricity price forwards have declined markedly implying more modest seasonal upturns during the winter".
• SEB note that consumer goods PPI have slowed, and approach the pre-pandemic trend. However, the weak krona exerted "upward pressure during the summer".
• The reversal of a seasonal upturn from international travels is expected to lower inflation in September. Given its higher weight relative to 2022.