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September CPI Shows Downside Surprise

NORWAY

Norway September CPI-ATE printed at +5.7 Y/Y (vs +6.1% cons; +6.3% prior) and +0.4 M/M. Headline CPI was +3.3% Y/Y (vs +4.0% cons; +4.8% prior) and -0.1% M/M.

  • Norges Bank had forecasted CPI-ATE at +6.1% and CPI at +4.2% Y/Y. This significant downside surprise may call into question the Norges Bank's rate decision in December, which was previously signalled to be a hike.
  • Housing, water, electricity and gas printed at -1.8% M/M and -4.9% Y/Y, while food and non-alcoholic beverages saw significant disinflation from +8.95% in August to +7.4% in September.
  • NOK turns sharply weaker following the release, with EURNOK almost 100pips higher and NOKSEK 20pips lower.

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