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September Cut Odds Build Ahead Of Payrolls, Mon Pol Report Later Today

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have dipped a little after Independence Day to leave them at the bottom of Thursday’s dovish data driven range, with September pricing of note at it shifts closer to a cut ahead of nonfarm payrolls.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 2.5bp Jul, 20.5bp Sep, 30bp Nov, 48bp Dec and 62bp.
  • NY Fed’s Williams (voter) is currently speaking at a RBI event in Mumbai after non-market moving prepared remarks which noted that inflation progress has been “significant” but the job is not done. Full text here.
  • Williams is technically today’s only scheduled speaker but the Fed’s Monetary Policy Report will be published today (historically at 1100ET) ahead of Powell’s Congressional appearances next week. It can help set the tone for Powell’s remarks but ultimately his prepared remarks will be published on Tuesday on the day of his Senate testimony.

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