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September Cut Seen Locked In Ahead Of Today's FOMC Decision

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have lifted by ~1bp overnight for most meetings over the next six months but continue to be weighed by yesterday’s geopolitics-driven risk off moves.
  • The BoJ's ultimately very well telegraphed 15bp hike to 0.25% had little impact at the time.
  • Markets continue to see extremely low odds of a cut from the FOMC today but will be looking for a teeing up to a September cut with a 25bp move more than fully priced.
  • See the full MNI Fed Preview here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/65494/FedPrevJul2024%20-%20with%20analysts.pdf
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 1bp Jul, 28bp Sep, 44bp Nov, 68bp Dec and 85bp Jan.

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