A reminder that September trade figures are due tomorrow. The market expects export growth to slow further (3.4% y/y from 6.6% y/y), while import growth is forecast at 17% y/y (from 28.2% previously). The trade deficit is expected to improve to -$2688mn from -$9487mn in August.
- Outside of focus on headline export growth momentum, the detail in terms of chips exports, which were last down -7% y/y, and exports to China (-5.4% y/y) will also be in focus.
- This morning's IP report showed that chip production fell in August (-1.7% y/y) for the first time since the start of 2018.
- The trade deficit will also be eyed to the extent pressures have eased, after this year’s adverse terms of trade shock. This has been a pressure point for the won.