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Sequential SA Services CPI Estimated To Have Picked Up Markedly

GERMAN DATA
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German national level CPI data suggests core momentum became positive again on a seasonally-adjusted basis in May, MNI estimates, driven by the services sector. Headline inflation seemingly also accelerated vs April sequentially, although comparably less in magnitude.

  • Specifically, we estimate SA core inflation to be broadly around 0.15% M/M (-0.09% prior), services inflation at around 0.41% (0.00% prior), and headline at around 0.37% (0.25% prior).
  • In annualized terms, this would imply core inflation broadly around 1.8%, services at around 5.0%, and headline inflation broadly around 4.5%.
  • However, it is important to note that although core and services CPI are estimated to have risen at a faster rate than in April; January, February and March all saw higher sequential M/M momentum, SA.
  • All of these figures are MNI's estimates of the Bundesbank's seasonally-adjusted sequential figures to be published later this afternoon, which will provide more detail.

MNI, Destatis, Bundesbank

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German national level CPI data suggests core momentum became positive again on a seasonally-adjusted basis in May, MNI estimates, driven by the services sector. Headline inflation seemingly also accelerated vs April sequentially, although comparably less in magnitude.

  • Specifically, we estimate SA core inflation to be broadly around 0.15% M/M (-0.09% prior), services inflation at around 0.41% (0.00% prior), and headline at around 0.37% (0.25% prior).
  • In annualized terms, this would imply core inflation broadly around 1.8%, services at around 5.0%, and headline inflation broadly around 4.5%.
  • However, it is important to note that although core and services CPI are estimated to have risen at a faster rate than in April; January, February and March all saw higher sequential M/M momentum, SA.
  • All of these figures are MNI's estimates of the Bundesbank's seasonally-adjusted sequential figures to be published later this afternoon, which will provide more detail.

MNI, Destatis, Bundesbank