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Free AccessSerbia Central Bank Slows Down Policy Tightening Pace
- The National Bank of Serbia (NBS) decided to slow down the pace of its tightening cycle at today's meeting and raised its repo rate by 25bps to 2.75%, below analysts predictions (3% exp.).
- 11 of 18 economists in Bloomberg's survey were expecting a 50bps, particularly following the recent CEE CB moves, with NBH responding aggressively to the HUF depreciation for example.
- It is the fourth time that the NBS is raising its benchmark rate (NBS proceeded with three 50bps hikes at the previous meetings) as inflationary pressures have remained elevated in the entire CEE region.
- Economic data showed last month that Serbian inflation accelerated to 10.4% in May (vs. 10% exp.), its highest level since April 2013, up from 9.6% the previous month.
- Next CPI print will come out on July 12, with CPI expected to increase to 10.6% in June.
- Prior the Ukraine war, it is likely that Serbia had been partly relying on its CEE peers' 'effort' (NBP, CNB and NBH), hoping that the gradual decline in inflation in H2 2022 will also have an impact on the domestic inflation.
- In addition, as the Serbian Dinar (RSD) seems pegged to the EUR at 117.60, the NBS may mirror the ECB policy outlook in order to avoid currency interventions as rising interest rate differential will drive RSD higher (vs. Euro).
- To the exception of Bulgaria, all central banks in the CEE region have now entered a tightening cycle (chart below).
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
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