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Service Inflation, Core and Headline All Higher Than Consensus

EUROZONE DATA
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Eurozone May flash headline printed a tenth above consensus while core inflation came in 2 tenths above, in line with MNI's tracking based on the national data released earlier today and yesterday.

  • Headline HICP was 2.6% Y/Y (vs 2.5% cons; 2.4% prior) and 0.2% M/M (vs 0.2% cons; 0.6% prior). On an unrounded basis, headline was 2.57% Y/Y and 0.22% M/M.
  • Core HICP came in a higher than expected at 2.9% Y/Y (vs 2.7% cons; 2.7% prior). This is a marginally larger surprise than the headline number. On an unrounded basis, core was 2.87% Y/Y and 0.44% M/M.
  • Looking at the individual categories, services inflation is expected to reach highest levels of this year at +4.1% Y/Y after disinflating to +3.7% in April. This was expected due to the removal of the 49 euro German ticket base effect and other travel components mentioned in our preview. Non-energy industrial goods saw its longer-term disinflation trend continuing as highlighted in our preview, printing at +0.8% Y/Y (vs +0.9% prior), while energy prices saw their expected uptick materialize at 0.3% Y/Y (vs -0.6% prior).
  • At a country level, annual HICP rose in 10 countries, fell in 7 countries, and was unchanged for the remaining 2 countries.

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Eurozone May flash headline printed a tenth above consensus while core inflation came in 2 tenths above, in line with MNI's tracking based on the national data released earlier today and yesterday.

  • Headline HICP was 2.6% Y/Y (vs 2.5% cons; 2.4% prior) and 0.2% M/M (vs 0.2% cons; 0.6% prior). On an unrounded basis, headline was 2.57% Y/Y and 0.22% M/M.
  • Core HICP came in a higher than expected at 2.9% Y/Y (vs 2.7% cons; 2.7% prior). This is a marginally larger surprise than the headline number. On an unrounded basis, core was 2.87% Y/Y and 0.44% M/M.
  • Looking at the individual categories, services inflation is expected to reach highest levels of this year at +4.1% Y/Y after disinflating to +3.7% in April. This was expected due to the removal of the 49 euro German ticket base effect and other travel components mentioned in our preview. Non-energy industrial goods saw its longer-term disinflation trend continuing as highlighted in our preview, printing at +0.8% Y/Y (vs +0.9% prior), while energy prices saw their expected uptick materialize at 0.3% Y/Y (vs -0.6% prior).
  • At a country level, annual HICP rose in 10 countries, fell in 7 countries, and was unchanged for the remaining 2 countries.

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