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Service PMIs Headline Regional Calendar; ECB Pricing Within Recent Ranges

STIR

Euribor futures are 1.0-3.0 higher through the blues, consolidating their post-Powell rally.

  • Softer-than-expected Swiss CPI data and subsequent dovish repricing in CHF STIRs may be lending light spill over support.
  • ECB-dated OIS contracts remain within recent ranges, with 91bps of cuts priced through the remainder of ’24 and 24bps priced through the June meeting.
  • The March service PMIs headline today’s regional calendar (the larger national and Eurozone prints are final readings), while Eurozone February PPI is also scheduled.
  • The minutes of the ECB’s March monetary policy meeting are due at 1230BST/1330CET, with focus on the extent to which rate cuts were discussed (if at all).
  • The ECB’s April monetary policy meeting is next Thursday (April 11).


    • Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
    Apr-243.893-1.8
    Jun-243.667-24.4
    Jul-243.512-40.0
    Sep-243.318-59.3
    Oct-243.182-72.9
    Dec-243.001-91.0
    Jan-252.875-103.6
    Mar-252.731-118.0
    Source: MNI/Bloomberg

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