MNI BRIEF: Higher Import Prices To Drive Policy - BOJ's Ueda

RBNZ SAYS MPC CONFIDENT OCR IS RESTRICTIVE

MNI: RBNZ LEAVES OCR AT 5.5%

MNI: PBOC Injects CNY2 Bln Via OMO Weds; Liquidity Unchanged

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.0959 Weds; -4.95% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC INJECTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS WEDS

MNI BRIEF: Japan Mar CGPI Rises 0.8% Y/Y, Higher Import Prices

MNI: JAPAN MAR CORP GOODS PRICE INDEX +0.8% Y/Y; FEB REV +0.7%

US Treasury Auction Calendar

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

MNI BRIEF: Lawmakers Signal Tough Hearing For BOC's Macklem

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Services inflation key ahead of the BOE on Thursday

UK DATA
  • The key number for this week’s MPC decision is likely to be services inflation. The BOE expected a 7.2%Y/Y increase in August while the median expectation from the analyst previews that we have read is 7.3%Y/Y (a tenth higher than the Bank’s expectation). There is also an upward skew here with only 1/11 analyst expecting a 7.2%Y/Y rise but 3/11 analysts expecting a print of 7.4%Y/Y (which would be unchanged from July) while 2/11 analysts look for an acceleration in services inflation to 7.6%Y/Y.
  • We think that a print of 7.4%Y/Y in services inflation would be enough to nudge market pricing up to at least 22bp and a print of 7.6%Y/Y as seen by a couple of analysts may even see markets price in a small probability of a 50bp hike this month.
  • However, if services inflation was to come in at 7.2%Y/Y in line with the Bank’s own forecast, we still think that the MPC would go ahead with a hike, but market pricing would likely fall back further, possibly to somewhere in the region of 15bp for the September meeting. If services inflation came in even softer than 7.2%Y/Y then, absent the move having been driven by some strange temporary factors, we would expect markets to be pricing in closer to a 50/50 probability of a September hike.
  • For the full UK Inflation Preview click here.
DataHomepagemarkets-real-timeData BulletBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.