MNI BRIEF: BOE Leaves Rates Unchanged In 6-3 Vote Split

MNI BOE WATCH: Bank Keeps Rate At 4.75%, But Three Vote To Cut

MNI: Canada Business Sentiment Falls After Trump Tariff Threat

MNI BRIEF: CNB Pauses Easing Cycle As Expected

MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, December 19

MNI BRIEF: China Working On Trade-in Scheme Expansion - MOFCOM

MNI: US DEC PHILADELPHIA FED MFG INDEX -16.4

MNI: US JOBLESS CLAIMS -22K TO 220K IN DEC 14 WK

MNI: US Q3 GDP +3.1%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Services inflation key ahead of the BOE on Thursday

UK DATA
  • The key number for this week’s MPC decision is likely to be services inflation. The BOE expected a 7.2%Y/Y increase in August while the median expectation from the analyst previews that we have read is 7.3%Y/Y (a tenth higher than the Bank’s expectation). There is also an upward skew here with only 1/11 analyst expecting a 7.2%Y/Y rise but 3/11 analysts expecting a print of 7.4%Y/Y (which would be unchanged from July) while 2/11 analysts look for an acceleration in services inflation to 7.6%Y/Y.
  • We think that a print of 7.4%Y/Y in services inflation would be enough to nudge market pricing up to at least 22bp and a print of 7.6%Y/Y as seen by a couple of analysts may even see markets price in a small probability of a 50bp hike this month.
  • However, if services inflation was to come in at 7.2%Y/Y in line with the Bank’s own forecast, we still think that the MPC would go ahead with a hike, but market pricing would likely fall back further, possibly to somewhere in the region of 15bp for the September meeting. If services inflation came in even softer than 7.2%Y/Y then, absent the move having been driven by some strange temporary factors, we would expect markets to be pricing in closer to a 50/50 probability of a September hike.
  • For the full UK Inflation Preview click here.
DataHomepagemarkets-real-timeData BulletBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.