Free Trial

Services Inflation Potentially A Touch Softer; Food Prices Jump

GERMAN DATA

Looking a bit closer at this morning's German state level flash June inflation data, food inflation seems to have jumped up, while services inflation might have softened slightly, and the core goods categories painted a mixed picture.

  • MNI estimates services inflation slightly lower than in May, at 3.8%-3.9% Y/Y (3.9% May) based on 49.7% weighting of the national print. This is driven by deceleration centred around a couple of individual categories: We track transport prices at 1.6-1.7% Y/Y (2.6% May) and the recreation and culture category at 1.4-1.5% Y/Y (1.8% May).
  • Meanwhile, healthcare and restaurants/hotels inflation appear to have accelerated, to around 2.9% Y/Y (2.7% May) and 6.5% Y/Y (6.3% May), and inflation in the communication, education, and other goods and services categories seems to have kept a relatively steady pace in June.
  • Food prices appear to have seen a jump looking at the yearly rate, at 2.4-2.5% Y/Y (1.2% May), which was driven by a firm sequential 1.1-1.2% M/M.
  • Core goods seem to paint a more mixed picture this month after disinflating recently. We estimate clothing and footwear broadly around 3.1% Y/Y (2.8% May) and furnishings and household equipment at 0.4% Y/Y (vs 0.8% May).
193 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Looking a bit closer at this morning's German state level flash June inflation data, food inflation seems to have jumped up, while services inflation might have softened slightly, and the core goods categories painted a mixed picture.

  • MNI estimates services inflation slightly lower than in May, at 3.8%-3.9% Y/Y (3.9% May) based on 49.7% weighting of the national print. This is driven by deceleration centred around a couple of individual categories: We track transport prices at 1.6-1.7% Y/Y (2.6% May) and the recreation and culture category at 1.4-1.5% Y/Y (1.8% May).
  • Meanwhile, healthcare and restaurants/hotels inflation appear to have accelerated, to around 2.9% Y/Y (2.7% May) and 6.5% Y/Y (6.3% May), and inflation in the communication, education, and other goods and services categories seems to have kept a relatively steady pace in June.
  • Food prices appear to have seen a jump looking at the yearly rate, at 2.4-2.5% Y/Y (1.2% May), which was driven by a firm sequential 1.1-1.2% M/M.
  • Core goods seem to paint a more mixed picture this month after disinflating recently. We estimate clothing and footwear broadly around 3.1% Y/Y (2.8% May) and furnishings and household equipment at 0.4% Y/Y (vs 0.8% May).