Services Inflation Potentially A Touch Softer; Food Prices Jump

Looking a bit closer at this morning's German state level flash June inflation data, food inflation seems to have jumped up, while services inflation might have softened slightly, and the core goods categories painted a mixed picture.

• MNI estimates services inflation slightly lower than in May, at 3.8%-3.9% Y/Y (3.9% May) based on 49.7% weighting of the national print. This is driven by deceleration centred around a couple of individual categories: We track transport prices at 1.6-1.7% Y/Y (2.6% May) and the recreation and culture category at 1.4-1.5% Y/Y (1.8% May).
• Meanwhile, healthcare and restaurants/hotels inflation appear to have accelerated, to around 2.9% Y/Y (2.7% May) and 6.5% Y/Y (6.3% May), and inflation in the communication, education, and other goods and services categories seems to have kept a relatively steady pace in June.
• Food prices appear to have seen a jump looking at the yearly rate, at 2.4-2.5% Y/Y (1.2% May), which was driven by a firm sequential 1.1-1.2% M/M.
• Core goods seem to paint a more mixed picture this month after disinflating recently. We estimate clothing and footwear broadly around 3.1% Y/Y (2.8% May) and furnishings and household equipment at 0.4% Y/Y (vs 0.8% May).