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Services prices and labour market tightness to concern the MPC

UK DATA
  • Just like in Germany and France (and a lesser extent the pan-Eurozone print), there has been a rebound in services output prices in the UK PMI.
  • These are said to be linked to continued wage increases and, as we noted with the German and French prints, are likely to be a concern for the central bank.
  • The MPC's recent communication has all centered around their view that the market is underpricing the persistence of inflation - and these data continue to point towards the potential upside risks flagged by the Bank.
  • The PMI output prices and labour market indications are given a decent weighting by the MPC. So although we don't think this will change any votes in December (we still look for 6-3), this data is signalling another potential delay to cuts next year (after a similar message from yesterday's Autumn Statement fiscal giveaway).
  • To us it makes sense that we are seeing gilts and SONIA under pressure in response to this data (see 9:39GMT comment).
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