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Services wage data not falling as much as hoped

UK DATA
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  • Also looking more into the sectoral breakdown of the UK wage data, It appears as though the upward revisions to the single month November data were fairly broad based.
  • Services regular wage growth on the single month measure was only -0.5ppt below the same cohort 3 months ago, which will also be a concern for the MPC.
  • The services single month measure in December at 6.3%Y/Y was actually higher in December than November which was 6.1%Y/Y (although these cannot be directly compared - but illustrate how the fall in wages across the sector appears to have stalled a little).
  • Again, it's a bit too early to really read a new narrative from these wage data, but the more we look into the data, the less encouraging they are for those looking for an early MPC cut.
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  • Also looking more into the sectoral breakdown of the UK wage data, It appears as though the upward revisions to the single month November data were fairly broad based.
  • Services regular wage growth on the single month measure was only -0.5ppt below the same cohort 3 months ago, which will also be a concern for the MPC.
  • The services single month measure in December at 6.3%Y/Y was actually higher in December than November which was 6.1%Y/Y (although these cannot be directly compared - but illustrate how the fall in wages across the sector appears to have stalled a little).
  • Again, it's a bit too early to really read a new narrative from these wage data, but the more we look into the data, the less encouraging they are for those looking for an early MPC cut.