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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
- Released at 1000ET today, the state unemployment data for June showed a pullback in the share of states that have seen a triggering of the Sahm rule, from an upward revised 42% to 34%.
- We feel it’s a move that further warrants caution in using this approach on state-wide data.
- The nationwide unemployment rate surprisingly lifted further to 4.05% in the June payrolls report two weeks ago.
- This was notable as it nudged above the 4.0% the median FOMC participant forecast for end-2024. It also translated to a 0.4pt climb in the Sahm calculation in a step closer to the 0.5pt historically indicative of recession.
- This trend increase has seen some analysts watch the share of states as an early warning indicator but with particularly strong immigration growth at present, it’s likely less reliable than ahead of prior recessions. Claudia Sahm herself has cautioned using the approach owing to differing immigration flows in each state which can steadily be re-distributed over time.
- The bottom right chart lends support to this criticism, with the share of starts initially pushing sharply higher but since plateauing and most recently declining with the 34% its lowest since October.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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