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Sharp JPY Depreciation Sends PLNJPY Above 30 Level

POLAND
  • The sharp JPY depreciation in the past few weeks following the dovish BoJ comments last month has been strongly supporting ‘risk-on’ pair PLNJPY.
    • Despite the upward revision in inflation, the BoJ is unlikely to change the course of its policy in the near to medium term.
    • In addition, the BoJ offered on Wednesday to conduct an unlimited purchase of JGBs at a fixed rate in the coming week to prevent the 10Y yield from rising above the 0.25% level.
  • PLNJPY fully recovered from its February/early March losses and is currently trading slightly above the 30 level, which also represents the 61.8% Fibo retracement of the 25.11 – 33.03 range.
  • The 33.03 high was reached in early February 2018, when liquidity peaked in the EM world (pre Covid).
  • A ‘clear’ break above 30 would bring us to December 2018 highs; ST resistance to watch on the topside stands at 30.18.

Source: Bloomberg

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