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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
April's headline household survey stats included the labor force contracting by a modest 43k (of 166.7M), with the participation rate unchanged at 62.6% (including - as we noted earlier - a fresh post-2008 high for prime-age participation).
- A strong if slightly odd breakdown in the unemployment rate figure though, which was down 0.1pp to 3.4%.
- Along with the minimal change in labor force size, and 139k gain in the number of employed, was a big drop in number of unemployed (-182k).
- Within the unemployed, job losers = lowest since 2021 (negative 307k). A key reason we didn't see a bigger unemp rate drop was the 135k re-entrants to the workforce and new entrants.
- Permanent job losers dropped 107k, the biggest drop since September 2022.
- This is potentially only a temporary reversal of recent trends which have seen new entrants and re-entrants slow and job losers contribute increasingly to the unemployment rate.
- But notable nonetheless, with the trend consistent with a labor market that may be softening too slowly for the Fed's taste.
- Unemployment rates by group were of note too in the household survey: All-time low (since data begins 1972) Black/African American unemp rate, dropped 0.3pp to 4.7%. And the lowest teenage unemployment since 1953 (down 0.6pp to 9.2%).
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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