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Sharp Reversal Overnight, With Fed Speakers Eyed

US TSYS SUMMARY

The week has kicked off with a sharp drop in yields in Asia-Pac followed by a large rebound in Europe, as markets continue to digest last week's hawkish Fed turn. A fairly quiet schedule ahead but FOMC speakers will continue to be closely watched following last week's unexpectedly hawkish shift.

  • The 2-Yr yield is up 0.4bps at 0.2583%, 5-Yr is up 0.5bps at 0.8795%, 10-Yr is down 0.4bps at 1.4346%, and 30-Yr is up 1.7bps at 2.03%.
  • But those relatively modest moves understate wide ranges: 10Y yields touched a fresh post-Feb low of 1.3526% (as Asian equities tumbled) before rebounding. 30-Yr yields higher on the session after dipping well below 2% (1.9259% low).
  • Sep 10-Yr futures (TY) up 3.5/32 at 132-13.5 (L: 132-11 / H: 132-30), with an impressive ~660k volume.
  • Scheduled Fed speakers include St Louis' Bullard and Kaplan (0945ET) in an event discussing the economic outlook (with Q&A); they're two of the 7 2022 hikes in the FOMC dot plot (Bullard said as much yesterday, and Kaplan surely kept his 2022 hike from the March meeting).
  • Then NY Fed's Williams at 1500ET (incl Q&A) who may provide a better gauge of the current thinking of the FOMC "core", ahead of Chair Powell's Congressional appearance Tuesday.
  • May Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity Index at 0830ET is the only data release.
  • In supply, 3-M / 6-M bills (total $111B) auction at 1130ET. NY Fed buys ~$1.425B of 10Y-22.5Y Tsy.

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