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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
POLAND
- We have seen recently that the sharp increase in Polish ST rates have led to an inversion in the 2Y10Y yield curve, increasing recession fears.
- Another interesting market indicator that tends to lead the business cycle is the 2-year change in the 2Y bond yield.
- While the 2-year change in 2Y tends to lead the economic cycle by 2 years in the developed market, it is usually shorter in the EM world (i.e. 6 months for Poland).
- The chart below shows that the sharp tightening in financial conditions is currently pricing in further deceleration in the industrial production, which we use as a proxy for the economic activity.
- We smoothed the 2021 April/May Industrial Production due to the base effect.
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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